Create Yuan Futures: Short-term adjustment of Shanghai copper, high probability of upward trend

Shanghai Futures Exchange copper prices rose slightly. The main June contract closed at 43,530 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan, an increase of 0.58%. At 3:00 PM on the same day, the London March copper price was US$6042/ton, and the Shanghai-London price ratio was 7.20, lower than 7.21 on the previous trading day. Shanghai Futures
Exchange copper's increase was smaller than that of the London market. Total contract turnover was 426,998 lots, and open interest increased by 282 lots to 819,646 lots. The main contract turnover was 235,236 lots, and open interest decreased by 3,328 lots to 375,940 lots. The Shanghai Metals Market's latest price for No. 1 copper is 42,430-42,550 yuan/ton, with a premium/discount of
(discount) 140-(discount) 60.  
    
      2、Market Analysis 
    
     Long-term: Breaking through long-term support, fluctuating downward 
     Medium-term: Rebound from the bottom 
     Short-term: Narrow range fluctuation 
    
      3、Market Information     
      In terms of spot market, today, the Shanghai electrolytic copper spot price against the current month contract was reported at a premium of 60 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton. The price of flat copper was 43,550 yuan/ton to 43,610 yuan/ton, and the price of premium copper was 43,570 yuan/ton to 43,650 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange copper price surged and was met with resistance. Holdershoarded goods in the morning, waiting for the market to rise. After the low-priced goods were released, they were quickly absorbed by speculators. Flat copper was the first to raise the premium and ship goods, and good copper was passively pushed to ship goods. There was still no price difference between Brands, but as the price of good copper rose to around 100 yuan, market transactions were significantly suppressed, and a stalematemode was reopened. However, before delivery, holders began to pay attention to the changes in the inter-month price difference, and the number of speculators entering the market for short-term operations increased. Downstream buyers purchased on demand, and overall transactions remained lukewarm. In terms of industry, according to foreign news on March 2, AuroraWilliams, Chile's Minister of Mining, said on Monday that the Chilean government still maintains its 2015 copper production forecast at 6 million tons, which will be a 5% increase over 2014 levels. He said that the decline in international oil prices will help high-cost producers maintain their output growth. He also said that the Chilean government will take measures to help small miners cope with high production costs.According to a Lusaka news report on February 23, Zambian President Edgar Lungu said on Facebook that if the Lumwana copper mine in the country is idled by Barrick Gold Corporation, the Zambian government may need to consider finding a new strategic partner for the mine's other owner, the state-owned company ZCCM-IH.According to a Tokyo news report on January 20, the Japan Electrical Wire & Cable Makers Association reported on Tuesday that Japan's December copper cable shipments (including sales and exports) fell 2.9% year-on-year to 60,000 tons. In terms of macroeconomics, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the benchmark interest rates for RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions from March 1, 2015.The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans from financial institutions will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 5.35%; the benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5%. At the same time, combined with the promotion of interest rate market-oriented reforms, the upper limit of the floating range of deposit interest rates for financial institutions will be adjusted from 1.2 times the benchmark deposit interest rate to 1.3 times; other benchmark interest rates for various levels of deposits and loans and personal housing provident fund deposit and loan interest rates will be adjusted accordingly.On Monday, data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.9 in February, lower than the expected 53, and fell for the fourth consecutive month, hitting a 13-month low. The expansion rate of US manufacturing in February slowed further compared to January.