Chuangyuan Futures: Short-term adjustment of Shanghai copper, high possibility of upside

Shanghai copper futures prices rose slightly. The main June contract closed at 43,530 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan, or 0.58%. At 15:00 on the same day, the London March copper price was 6042 US dollars / ton. The ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.20, which was lower than 7.21 in the previous trading day. Shanghai futures
Copper rose less than the London market. All contracts traded 426,998 lots, and open interest increased by 282 lots to 819,646 lots. The main contract turnover was 235,236 hands, and the open interest decreased by 3,328 hands to 375,940 hands. Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Net 1# copper latest price 42430-42550 yuan / ton, premium and discount
(Post) 140-(Post) 60. 
 
2. Disk analysis
 
Long-term: below long-term support, volatile decline
Mid-term: bottoming out
Short term: narrow range
 
3. Market information
In terms of spot, today's Shanghai electrolytic copper spot is at a premium of 60 yuan / ton to the current month contract - a premium of 100 yuan / ton, the transaction price of flat water copper is 43550 yuan / ton - 43610 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of premium copper is 43570 yuan / ton - 43650 yuan / Ton. The Shanghai futures copper was blocked from rising, and the holders covered their goods in the morning market, waiting for the disk to rise. After the low-priced goods were released, they were quickly absorbed by speculators. There is no price difference, but as the price of good copper rose to around 100 yuan, the market transaction was obviously suppressed, and the stalemate mode was opened again. However, before the delivery, the holder began to pay attention to the price difference change in the next month, and the short-term operation of speculators entering the market increased. Goods, the overall transaction is still tepid. In terms of industry, according to foreign news on March 2, Chilean Mining Minister Aurora Williams said on Monday that the Chilean government still maintained its 2015 copper production forecast at 6 million tons, which will increase by 5% compared with 2014 levels. The drop in international oil prices will help high-cost producers maintain output growth, he said. He also said the Chilean government would take steps to help small miners deal with high production costs. Lusaka, February 23, Zambia President Edgar Lungu said on Facebook that once the country's Lumwana copper mine is idled by Barrick Gold, the Zambian government may need to consider another owner of the mine-state-owned company ZCCM- IH is looking for a new strategic partner. According to Tokyo's January 20 news, the Japan Wire and Cable Manufacturers Association reported on Tuesday that Japan's December copper cable shipments (including sales and exports) fell 2.9% from a year earlier to 60,000 tons. On the macro level, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the benchmark interest rates for RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions from March 1, 2015. The benchmark one-year loan interest rate of financial institutions was lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 5.35%; the benchmark one-year deposit rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5%. At the same time, combined with the promotion of interest rate marketization reform, the upper limit of the floating range of deposit interest rates of financial institutions was changed from the deposit benchmark. The interest rate was adjusted from 1.2 times to 1.3 times; other benchmark deposit and loan interest rates and personal housing provident fund deposit and loan interest rates were adjusted accordingly. On Monday, data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in February was 52.9, less than The expected 53, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, hit a 13-month low. U.S. manufacturing expansion slowed again in February from January.